Land takedown and option structure model

Every takedown date tested against the starts that consume the lots, and every option expiry on a calendar in front of it. Hold the option instead of carrying the land, and never re-strike because a date passed.

$3.9M

Reference-scale value

Data sets in the model

12 weeks

Build and deploy

Derived

Evidence grade

The decision this model makes

A takedown schedule gets written when the land is tied up, against a pro forma that assumed an absorption rate. The absorption rate changes. The schedule usually does not.

Holding land under option is the low-carry position. Taking a lot down converts an option fee into a carried asset, and the difference compounds every month the lot waits for a start.

The other direction costs more per event and happens less often. An option expiry passes, the land gets re-struck at market, and 128 lots a year come back nearly ten thousand dollars higher. Some of that is the market. Some of it is a calendar nobody was watching.

The model drives takedown from the forward start schedule rather than from the original pro forma, puts every expiry on a calendar with an alert in front of it, and tests the next option's structure against your own absorption record.

Cause 01

Early takedown

Lots taken down ahead of the start that consumes them. Option fee converted to carried asset.

Cause 02

Option lapse

An expiry that passed, re-struck at market. Part administrative failure, part market movement.

Cause 03

Deposit structure

Capital committed against a takedown schedule the absorption record does not support.

Cause 04

Servicing wait

Taken down, then held waiting on servicing. Priced by the lot delivery model and credited there.

Want more detail?

The rest of this model — the data sets it runs on, the cause split, the working behind the reference figure and a sample output — goes out by email. Two fields, nothing else.