Servicing and lot delivery reliability model

Every lot's delivery date forecast against the date the start schedule assumes, with the starts that move, the capital committed early and the season that closes priced on the same page. Act on the lot in July instead of paying for it in October.

$1.8M

Reference-scale value

Data sets in the model

8 weeks

Build and deploy

Derived

Evidence grade

The decision this model makes

The lot release schedule says a lot is ready on a date. Construction builds a start schedule on that date. When the date moves, everyone finds out in the week the crew was supposed to break ground.

Twenty-seven per cent of lots arrive late, and most of those force a start to move. A moved start carries standing investment for six weeks, re-sequences crews, and in some cases costs a concession to a buyer whose possession date was already committed.

The mirror problem costs almost as much and nobody looks for it. Nineteen per cent of lots are serviced, and their levies paid, more than two quarters before a start needs them. That is capital committed early against a schedule that had not asked for it.

The model forecasts a delivery date per lot with a confidence band, issues an exception list every Monday naming the starts at risk, and prices the over-servicing position from invoices you have already paid.

Cause 01

Late delivery

A lot that misses its date and takes a start with it. Carry, re-sequencing and sometimes a buyer concession.

Cause 02

Over-servicing

Servicing and levies paid two quarters before a start needed them. The line nobody asks for.

Cause 03

Deficiency rework

Servicing accepted with deficiencies that return. Part of it recoverable by backcharge.

Cause 04

Winter window

Lots that miss freeze-up and wait for spring. Priced, not removed — the season is not negotiable.

Want more detail?

The rest of this model — the data sets it runs on, the cause split, the working behind the reference figure and a sample output — goes out by email. Two fields, nothing else.