NoticeablePRO
Elevating decisions. Changing outcomes.
Spec inventory risk model
The decision this model makes
A spec home gets priced when it starts and sold at whatever the market will take five months later. Between those two dates nobody re-prices it, because re-pricing looks like admitting the first price was wrong.
Sixty-five homes stand against a target of forty-eight. The seventeen above target carry interest every day nobody decides anything.
The quieter cost runs the other way. Twenty-four homes a year get discounted before the market required it, because a standing home makes people nervous and a discount is the fastest way to end the conversation.
The model issues a reprice recommendation per home at completion and at each interval after it, with the carry cost of holding stated against the concession of moving now.
Homes past ninety days leaving light at sale. A release-pace outcome, priced by that model and credited there.
Homes above target, carried daily. Part release pace, part a hold decision nobody made on purpose.
Priced at start, sold at completion, with no review in between.
Concessions given before the window required them. Small, and the finding a sales VP recognises immediately.
Want more detail?
The rest of this model — the data sets it runs on, the cause split, the working behind the reference figure and a sample output — goes out by email. Two fields, nothing else.