Warranty reserve accuracy model

Every vintage's reserve assumption traced to the trapped capital, the unbudgeted surprise and the audit cost it produces, against the claims band the reserve model already assumes. Reforecast before the variance becomes a finding.

$0.8M

Reference-scale value

Data sets in the model

6 wks

Build and deploy

Derived

Evidence grade

A single blended assumption is a guess about every vintage at once

Every warranty reserve already carries a variance band it's assumed to hold within — a number set once a year, and checked against actual claims only at the year-end close. Nobody joins the reserve ledger to claims-by-vintage until the audit, so an over-reserved vintage sits on trapped capital for a year and an under-reserved one lands as a surprise, not a variance a controller could have caught at the quarter.

Every out-of-band vintage compared against the assumption the reserve model already promised. The gap is traced to a driver — trapped capital, an unbudgeted surprise, an audit finding — so a controller can reforecast this quarter, not explain a restatement at the next audit.

$357,000 · addressable

Trapped capital

Capital held against over-reserved vintages that could be released or redeployed. The largest single driver.

$190,400 · addressable

Unbudgeted P&L hit

Claims cost on an under-reserved vintage landing as a surprise charge, not a budgeted line.

$78,200 · addressable

Audit and restatement cost

Fees and hours tied specifically to a reserve-accuracy finding.

$170,000 · not addressable here

Claims misattributed to the wrong vintage or trade

Priced separately in the warranty recurrence model. Not double-claimed here.

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The rest of this model — the data sets it runs on, the cause split, the working behind the reference figure and a sample output — goes out by email. Two fields, nothing else.