Weather and seasonal exposure model

Every weather-hold day traced to the conditions spend, the schedule carry and the remobilization cost it produces, against the buffer already built into the schedule. Fix the response before next season repeats it.

$0.9M

Reference-scale value

Data sets in the model

6 wks

Build and deploy

Derived

Evidence grade

A buffer that worked last year is a guess about this one

Every schedule already carries a weather allowance — a number set once, from memory, and never checked against what the season actually cost. Nobody joins the daily weather record to the schedule actuals until the ground-protection invoice lands, so a wide season shows up as a conditions overrun, not a scheduling decision.

Every weather-held home compared against the buffer the schedule already promised. The gap is traced to a driver — extra conditions spend, a lost-day carry, a remobilization charge — so a superintendent can call a forecast-triggered response this week, not explain a cost overrun at the next capital review.

$360,000 · addressable

Extra conditions spend

Dewatering, temporary heat and ground protection beyond the seasonal allowance. The largest single driver.

$240,000 · addressable

Lost-day schedule carry

Cycle days lost to a hold beyond what the schedule's own buffer already covers.

$150,000 · addressable

Trade remobilization cost

Second-trip and double-mobilization charges after a weather gap breaks a crew's sequence.

$138,000 · not addressable here

Weather-driven schedule carry, coordination share

Priced separately in the cycle-time drag model. Not double-claimed here.

Want more detail?

The rest of this model — the data sets it runs on, the cause split, the working behind the reference figure and a sample output — goes out by email. Two fields, nothing else.